苹果市值一夜蒸发超千亿美元，iPhone销售前景堪忧

新年首个交易日，苹果公司股价大跌4%，创下七周低点，市值蒸发超过1000亿美元。而就在上个月，苹果公司收盘市值重新站上3万亿美元上方，该公司股价过去一年股价累计涨幅约50%。

苹果股价暴跌是由于当天券商巴克莱银行下调了该公司的股票评级和目标定价。巴克莱银行周二将苹果股票评级从“中性”下调至“减持”，并将未来12个月苹果的目标价下调至160美元。在此之前，很少有券商给予苹果股票看跌评级。

苹果公司占标普500指数市场权重约7%。苹果公司目前12个月的市盈率约为28.7倍，远高于标普500指数19.8倍的市盈率。

自去年初以来，苹果一直在努力应对需求放缓的问题，并预测假日季度的销售额将低于华尔街的预期。在中国竞争对手华为智能手机复兴后，苹果在中国的表现也令人担忧。

研究机构Canalys分析师朱嘉弢此前对第一财经记者表示：“我们预期在中国，苹果iPhone可能会有降价举措，或者说是对于渠道促销管控力度可能减少。”

巴克莱银行称，iPhone 15销量疲软可能是对苹果下一代iPhone 16手机销量下滑以及更广泛的硬件销售的预警信号。

巴克莱分析师蒂姆·朗（Tim Long）周二在一份给客户的报告中写道，iPhone 15目前的“低迷”销售，特别是在中国，预示着iPhone 16的销售也会同样疲软。

蒂姆·朗写道：“iPhone销量和产品组合仍然疲软，Mac、iPad和可穿戴设备也缺乏反弹迹象。”

上个月，受专利纠纷影响，苹果公司还一度中断了Apple Watch Series 9和Apple Watch Ultra 2两个高端系列智能手表在美国的销售。不过在苹果公司提出上诉、法院尚未作出最终裁决前，两款手表暂时恢复销售。

苹果首席财务官卢卡·马斯特里（Luca Maestri）在上一季度财报发布会上已经给出了谨慎预测。他表示，在假日季中，苹果的销售预计与上一季度基本持平。这意味着投资者不应对苹果在一年中业务最繁忙的季度的收入增长有过高的期待。

马斯特里还表示，包括Mac和iPad在内的产品部门与去年同期相比面临着困难，该部门在上一个季度中的收入下降了5%，其中Mac收入在上一个季度同比下降近34%，iPad收入下降了10%。

近日还有消息称，苹果头显设备Apple Vision Pro将于本月底在美上市发售。苹果公司未就此消息回应第一财经记者。

对此，Canalys预计，Vision Pro发布后至少12个月内将缺货。Canalys分析师刘健森对第一财经记者表示：“苹果希望依靠Vision Pro打破其关键产品（iPhone、iPad和Mac）的模式，以证明其可以继续在创新领域保持领先地位。”

巴克莱银行也预测了苹果未来面临的多重风险，除了硬件销售低迷之外，其他风险还包括苹果服务业务可能面临更严格的监管审查挑战。

蒂姆·朗预计，苹果利润丰厚的服务业务也将出现增长放缓，部分原因是监管审查。目前苹果服务业务的毛利率大约是苹果所有硬件产品利润的两倍，占该公司总收入的近四分之一，也被视为驱动苹果利润增长的重要业务来源。苹果CEO库克在早些时候的投资者电话会议上强调，服务业务部门的增长“好于预期”。

上个月，游戏公司Epic Games在与谷歌的官司中赢得了重要的胜利，法院认为谷歌安卓应用商城存在非法垄断，与两年前Epic Games起诉苹果的案件得出了相反的判决结果。巴克莱银行认为，2024年监管部门将对谷歌商店作出初步裁决，这可能也会影响未来苹果商城的盈利模式。

谷歌CEO桑达尔·皮查伊（Sundar Pichai）此前证实，谷歌将Safari搜索收入的36%支付给苹果。

另一方面，受人工智能乐观情绪、通胀见顶以及各国央行进一步经济刺激预期推动，美国科技巨头在去年全年创下多年来最大涨幅后，市场预计这一势头整体仍将保持。

过去一年里，Facebook母公司Meta的市值大幅飙升188%至9093亿美元，创11年来最大年度涨幅；美国芯片制造商英伟达公司的市值飙升240%，达1.22万亿美元，这是该公司自2001年以来的最大年度涨幅。

电动汽车巨头特斯拉也出现了显著增长，去年该公司市值翻了一番，达到7890亿美元。这一增长是由于对其自动驾驶软件的投入以及今年最后季度创纪录的车辆交付量推动的。特斯拉公布最新季度交付数据显示，2023年全年，特斯拉全球范围内共计生产电动车约185万辆，交付约181万辆。 

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(min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc)body:not(.pages_skin_pc){background:#191919;background:var(--weui-BG-2)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, 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#7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--discussInput-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .03)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--nickName-FG: #959595}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: 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174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}.rich_media_content p{clear:both;min-height:1em}td p{margin:0;padding:0}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) :root{--appmsgPageGap: 20px;--appmsgPageBottomGap: 40px}}:root{--articleFontsize: 17px}:root{--sab: env(safe-area-inset-bottom)}:root{--wxBorderAvatarRatio: 3}:root{--discussPageGap: 20px}:root{--appmsgPageGap: 20px;--appmsgPageBottomGap: 40px}*{margin:0;padding:0}.rich_media_content *{max-width:100%!important;box-sizing:border-box!important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box!important;word-wrap:break-word!important}

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